The hottest money shortage reduces downstream dema

"Money shortage" reduces downstream demand, and the steel industry is even worse.

"money shortage" reduces downstream demand, and the steel industry is even worse.

China Construction machinery information

Guide: editor's note: the bank money shortage will soon spread and affect the real economy and real enterprises. Among them, the steel industry was listed as one of the most affected industries. Indirect effects seem to have occurred. It is said that many banks have stopped housing loans, and at present, in the case of large-scale investment projects falling precipitously, steel

check which industries are most affected by the money shortage. Trust, third-party financial management and other industries naturally bear the brunt, while real estate, automobile, steel, engineering machinery and other industries are greatly affected by the "money shortage"

as we all know, under the condition of abundant market liquidity and liquidity in the banking system, it has reversed instantly since the beginning of June. The banking industry generally encountered an unprecedented "money shortage", and the overnight interest rate of Shanghai interbank lending market soared to more than 30%. This is what most of the research and development work of Hanlan bochini cares about the completion of Dali, which is also unheard of. The short-term position funds of the banking industry are tight, which directly threatens the payment problem of the cabin door used by the bank for Airbus aircraft

the inter-bank lending rate soared, and the central bank sat on the sidelines; Some banks have a "money shortage", which even threatens the payment problem. The central bank is still unmoved, depending on who is swimming naked; On the 24th, the stock market plummeted, the largest one-day decline in four years. However, the central bank stated that "the current liquidity is generally moderate, and there is no liquidity shortage in terms of the total amount", implying that it is determined not to release water. Having been kind for more than ten years, the central bank aunt suddenly became a "wicked woman", and it was beyond common sense to "die before saving" her spoiled children

from the perspective of macro policy, the central bank is resolutely implementing the requirements of the executive meeting of the State Council: "we should adhere to and give full play to the prudent monetary policy, reasonably maintain the total amount of money, optimize the allocation of financial resources, make good use of the increment and revitalize the stock, and the goal is to stabilize growth, adjust structure, and promote economic transformation and development". The key words are "hold on" and "revitalize the stock". Under the circumstances that money supply has been criticized by excessive development, it is obviously not good for adjusting the economic structure, curbing inflation, and promoting the transformation and upgrading of economic structure if money is put in a large amount. The key problem is that there is no lack of liquidity in both the whole market and the banking system. The current scale of liquidity is enough or even more than enough to support economic development. Rushing to release water is tantamount to continuing to blow up the economic and financial foam and fuelling inflation

although the central bank announced on the evening of June 25 that in order to maintain the smooth operation of the money market, it has recently provided liquidity support to some financial institutions that meet the requirements of macro prudence. But a mere 10 billion yuan is a drop in the bucket for the market. The real meaning of water release is that the central bank reduces the deposit reserve ratio or carries out a 100 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation

the author predicts that the "money shortage" of banks will spread for a while, for three reasons. There are two recent reasons: first, the war of deposits in all walks of life has begun at the end of June, which does not rule out the occurrence of false deposits for one-day tours at the end of June. And July 5 is the date of deposit reserve. If the deposit surged by 2trillion yuan at the end of June, then the reserve of 400billion yuan needs to be paid, which will inevitably cause the funds of some banks with more false deposits to be nervous again. Second, Fitch, the international rating agency, announced on Friday that the financial reporting shock appeared at the Shanghai International Rubber and plastic exhibition, saying that in the last 10 days of the end of this month, China's banking industry will have more than 1.5 trillion financial products due, and the pressure on cashing funds is unimaginable. One long-term reason is that with the slowdown of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve and its complete withdrawal in the middle of next year, the RMB will turn from appreciation to depreciation, and international capital will accelerate the flight, which will cause financial pressure on banks for a long time

the "money shortage" of banks will soon spread and affect the real economy and real enterprises. Among them, the steel industry was listed as one of the most affected industries. Indirect effects seem to have occurred. It is said that many banks have stopped housing loans. At present, in the case of the steep fall of large investment projects, the real estate industry is the biggest driver of steel demand. If the real estate is affected by the "money shortage", the steel demand will be even worse. Put it in an aluminum alloy box

the tightening of funds and the increase of interest rates have a direct impact on steel trading enterprises, which is the increase of financing costs and the reduction of profit space. In this case, steel traders are very cautious in organizing resources, unwilling to hoard goods rashly and build warehouses blindly, which will bring certain constraints to the release of middle-end demand, which will also affect the later changes in the steel market trend. This is why some steel traders believe that the "money shortage" has a much greater impact on the steel market than the power shortage. The "electricity shortage" has a greater impact on steel mills. Reducing the output is conducive to the alleviation of the contradiction between supply and demand in the steel market, while the "money shortage" affects a large number of steel enterprises, directly affecting the demand for steel

a few days ago, the executive meeting of the State Council required that credit funds be guided to support the real economy. Support the adjustment of excess capacity, carry out targeted M & A loans for enterprises integrating excess capacity, and prohibit the provision of new credit for illegal construction projects in industries with serious excess capacity. The steel industry obviously belongs to the "forbidden" ranks. The "money shortage" in the banking industry will not only impact the steel industry, making it more difficult for the steel industry to lend to formal financial enterprises, but also greatly raise the financing costs of other financing channels

although the sun is scorching now, the steel industry has encountered a "severe winter", and this "winter" is still very long. Therefore, all steel mills and steel trading enterprises should be prepared to fight a protracted war to overcome difficulties. It is expected that the steel market will continue its weak decline in the short term

however, according to rational analysis, the "money shortage" will not continue, the real estate market will not collapse, and the steel price will not fall to the "ground" as a result